From 10 August the exchange rate of bitcoin was trapped in a narrow range of about $11,400 and yet has difficulty with the definition of the future direction. Current price dynamics against the background of declining trade volumes: according to the CMC, in the last 7 days they fell by 42%. This may indicate a temporary loss of interest of investors, who prefer to remain on the sidelines waiting for new impulses.
In the future, Bitcoin has several scenarios. Optimistic in which we are talking about higher lows and higher highs, suggests that the current situation may be related to changes in the value of bitcoin in September-October of 2017, when the cryptocurrency for some time retreated before the breakthrough to a historical maximum of about $20,000. The launch of deliverable futures for BTC, with a new round of escalation of the trade war, the collapse of the shares or toughening of the geopolitical situation could provide the right conditions for such growth bitcoin exchange rate, which won’t come close to sharp profit-taking by large investors.
The pessimistic scenario assumes that the bullish momentum has dried up. Regulators consistently transfer requests to run various tools of investing in bitcoin. Large capital and scalpers do not give this impulse to develop into a full-fledged rally, taking profit after a relatively small (by the standards of bitcoin) price spikes. Crypto-enthusiasts and retail investors finally lose their levers of influence on the price dynamics due to the market presence of major players. Such a long tug of war negatively affects the mood and runs the risk of eventually result in a decrease in BTC.
The neutral scenario assumes that the bitcoin for a long time will be clamped in the range of $9-$13K. As you get closer to halving in may 2020, the market participants will start to rock the reference cryptocurrency, as it was with Litecoin (LTC): since the beginning of the year before alvingham he jumped 370%. In the case of Bitcoin, the amplitude growth may be much weaker, since the starting price point “halving-rally” may be far from the lows as was the case with Litecoin.
In General, the traditional global financial system is moving in a very disturbing direction. In addition to increasing technical and trade isolation, the Central banks want to get full control over the movement of funds within the country and they are particularly interested in output abroad. In this case, the emergence of a “national cryptocurrency” and translate all calculations in a cashless form will become a natural step in the evolution of money. A pioneer in this region will be China, which is approaching the launch of its first “state of cryptocurrency”. Country as with all other technical innovations, has banned all foreign and developing its autocratic counterpart.
No matter how sad to admit, but the emergence of bitcoins and “satoshis vision of” financial cooperation without intermediaries can lead to exactly the opposite result: that cryptocurrencies will deprive the people of a certain anonymity in costs and give governments unlimited monetary power.
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